Leaving Food on The Plate (Offense)
Summary: Overhyped/Overrated draft prospects you shouldn’t be too keen on.
Jaxon Dart (QB) Ole Miss:
No prospect in this year’s draft with first round hype scares me more than Jaxon Dart. He fits the exact archetype that would give a franchise nightmares. A former shortstop turned quarterback with a cannon for an arm and unbelievable stats. It’s usually hard to discredit 29 TDs to 6 INTs and 4,279 passing yards. With Jaxon Dart it’s easy. There were certain performances or lack thereof from Dart that stood out like a sore thumb. He wilted in every big game. Even in Ole Miss’ win vs. Georgia the second time the two teams met, Dart was not good. Carson Beck was just far more pitiful so Ole Miss ran away with the game. The moment a QB evaluator watched the Florida game though is when they realized he might not be at an NFL level. A meltdown of epic proportions.
In the final minutes of a game Ole Miss was heavily favored in Jaxon Dart had three chances to score a touchdown. He couldn’t do it. Florida’s defense wasn’t good whatsoever, but Dart had the worst plays down the stretch. The first was a fifty yard heave into three Florida DBs, a poor read that was easily intercepted with no one in the area of the pass. He gets the ball back, gets stuffed, they punt, and Ole Miss has a defensive hold to give him one last chance. Dart drives the ball down to near midfield and rips an intermediate throw to the outside seven yards past his receiver. Directly to two Florida DBs for a costly game sealing pick. But wait! Flag on the play. After this play Dart cried. Now he could redeem himself. The next play he takes the snap, has a miscommunication with his receiver, and releases another touch pass. Once again it was ten yards past the target right in the laps of two Florida DBs. Interception. Three throws nowhere near his target that Jaxon completely botched. It was this loss that ultimately sealed Ole Miss’ fate for a playoff berth. I wouldn’t touch this guy with a ten foot pole.
At the end of the day Dart was miserable every time he played on the brightest stage, so how is he supposed to lead an NFL team?
Tyler Warren (TE) Penn State:
Warren has everything scouts look for in a tight end. Elite size, phenomenal blocking, and the ability to fight for every single possible yard. His run after the catch capabilities were the only thing Penn State’s offense had outside of the run game. So why is a guy who just came off of a 1,200 yard receiving season accompanied by 200 rushing yards a bad pick? He’s not necessarily a bad pick, it's just where he is projected to go. If he goes to the Chicago Bears at 10 it would be an incredible reach for their organization. Although he was a man amongst boys in college in the NFL I don’t know how he’ll fair considering how Penn State’s whole offense centered around him being their WR1 and ONLY threat. His stats are also somewhat deceiving considering his best games came against Penn State’s worst competition with his top two performances against BGSU and USC. Two games accounting for nearly a third of his yards. On the bright side Warren has the most unbelievable hands of any tight end I may have seen though. That’s his silver lining. He does damage with one handed catches, ludicrous jump balls, and miraculous snags with several defenders in his grill.
When entering the NFL it’ll be interesting to monitor if Warren can get any separation from defenders. The main way he could succeed is if the team that drafts him negates that weakness by setting up tricky underneath looks with blockers in front of him or plays where he leaks out of pass pro into vacant areas in the flats. If faced with man coverage I really want to see how Warren would fare considering Warren has shown he can climb the ladder or haul in a ridiculous grab through contact with sheer strength. Can teams justify giving up a top pick for a TE? He only has one heroic season and there’s multiple tight ends projected to go after him with more meat on the bone as receiving threats. I don’t think he’s worth it. Warren anywhere before pick 15 is a no go.
Shedeur Sanders (QB) Colorado
Deion’s PR ability is a double edged sword in terms of glancing at Shedeur Sanders. Sanders played no competition, made some dazzling throws, dealt with no offensive line play, and had moments where he looked downright dreadful. A mixed bag that would be nearly impossible to evaluate unless he was Prime’s son. If he didn’t have the lineage he does I don’t see how Shedeur would be anywhere near the stratosphere of becoming a top 3-5 pick. He’s a third round talent. Watching him play on ESPN was incredibly challenging for an avid football fan that’s for sure. Every pass he made commentators were gushing over his poise and composure. The best instance of this was when BYU was blowing the brakes off of Colorado in the Valero Alamo Bowl and Shedeur scored twice in garbage time to bring the contest to 36-14 in favor of BYU. With how Dave Pasch was talking, Colorado was the greatest show on turf. Constantly praising Shedeur as if it was a contractual obligation. Highlighting his poise as Colorado is getting dismantled and he was clamped all game. Sanders is the biggest question mark of this draft considering he ran for his life on so many plays, made some incredible throws off all platforms, and lastly played no competition. There isn’t really a team week one I can see Shedeur elevating.
Sanders isn’t particularly fast either although he can beat you with his legs as a dual threat player. His arm does the job, but he constantly pats the ball on every throw which won’t work in the NFL. Not only does it throw off the timing of quick passes it leaves a cue for defenders to jump in front of passes and take the ball away. Sanders only standout quality can be his precise accuracy when he gets into a groove. A situation that is unlikely considering he’ll end up an NFL bottom feeder organization’s QB. Sanders will take a couple years to learn how the NFL works and could end up a middle of the pack quarterback. It would be very nice to get to see Sanders play behind a stout offensive line. Analysts act like Sanders is going to hit his ceiling, but as of now there’s no way he dominates in the league any time soon. You can’t blame the guy for being Prime’s son, but boy is it annoying having the media propel this guy far above his value all due to his namesake.
TreVeyon Henderson (RB) Ohio State
There is not an easier draft bust to project than TreVeyon Henderson. Some people might immediately disagree with that statement and for those who do, here's some food for thought. Henderson carried the rock only nine times a game over the course of this season. A year full of homerun plays that were setup by potentially the best offensive line in all of football. Ohio State had multiple NFL caliber guys along their front along with Quinshon Judkins to form a two headed monster in the backfield with Henderson. In 2022 Henderson missed five games with a broken foot, in 2023 he had an undisclosed injury that apparently hampered his performance, and in 2024 he had a running mate that carried the ball 50 more times than he did. Having such a light workload, an injury history, and the best offensive rosters in college football throughout his time at Ohio State are all negatives when looking towards his career in the NFL.
That being said Henderson can absolutely fly and if he does stay healthy he is one of the premier running back talents in this draft. This draft is just far too deep at running back for a team to draft Henderson in the early second or late first round though considering he would be a limited workload guy. We’ve seen it with JK Dobbins and his unreal talent that has been hampered by constant injury. Some guys just can’t hold up at the NFL level. There definitely is a world where Henderson goes to a team with a formidable RB2 (maybe Washington) where he could have a bruising back absorbing hits to wear down the defense. Then you insert Henderson for brief stints. He’s phenomenal as a pass blocking back as well as being a more than capable pass catcher, possessing true value in any situation. His vision, speed, and contact balance are all supreme, but with running backs it’s common to see injuries quickly derail careers. The injury bug being there to swipe his speed is just too big of an elephant in the room for me.
